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Despite still not winning on North American soil, Matt Fitzpatrick has been playing fantastic golf this season. Outside of the missed cut at The Players, which we can discount due to the insane weather and delays, he's finished 12th or better in five-straight stroke play events.
He also ranks near the top in just about every single measurable statistic. He has no glaring weaknesses, and he already has a T7 at this event in But getting plus odds for a guy in this level of form to finish Top 20 feels like free money. While it might be exciting to pick him to win, that seems incredibly unlikely. You could even make the argument that him teeing it up on Thursday is a win in itself. However, I do think that getting around even odds for him to make the cut according to the consensus numbers is a bet I love.
With the second-most wins at Augusta National in history and a slew of other Top 5 finishes, Woods' record at this tournament needs no introduction. But he's also only missed the cut once in his career, even with the health issues he's dealt with previously.
The reports of how his swing looks and his intimate knowledge of how to play this course lead me to think he'll see the weekend, even if the grueling walk and tournament cause him to fade on Saturday and Sunday. That's not happening, but the two-time winner here has been impressive when he tees it up every year given his age. He's still made the cut in four of the last six years and has two Top 30 finishes in that span.
Course knowledge is perhaps more important at Augusta National than anywhere else, so seeing the veteran at that number is worth at least a small, small sprinkle this week as a longshot. Sure, he finished outright fourth in but, outside of that, he's never been inside the Top 10 in his career. But I'm looking for that to change in a big way this week.
Thomas is first in the field over the last 50 rounds in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and has been just a dynamo with his ball-striking over the past few months. The putter has been an undeniable issue but he has always been prone to erratic play with the flat stick and one good week at Augusta would be enough for him to slip on a Green Jacket. Even better, Iain MacMillan also has Thomas as one of his outright picks this week.
Here's his reasoning. Not many people are talking about Justin Thomas heading into this year's Masters, but he's been sneakily playing some fantastic golf this season, despite not yet securing a win. He's finished 6th or better in five of his 10 starts this season, and a poor draw at The Players Championship took him out of contention before he could get going.
He ranks second in strokes gained: tee-to-green and third in total strokes gained, and outside of a slight misstep at last year's event, he's improved his placing at the Masters every year since his debut. I think he holds the best value amongst the top names on the odds list. I'm putting a full unit to win on Justin Thomas this week. It's JT's time to get that second major and finally bust through the ceiling at Augusta. He's found something with his ball-striking over his recent months, including gaining 3.
Writing that off as I feel is proper to do, he's peaking in terms of form and health. Combine that with his prowess when a major is in play and I love this number for Koepka. But even in Austin where he lost strokes ball-striking for the week, a recently hot putter and consistent around-the-green play allowed him to advance to the knockout stages. He finished T18 at The Masters last year and has garnered five starts overall, giving him more experience at a place where that's crucial.
Frankly, his odds just look too high to me, so I'm going to chase the value and sprinkle on him this week. Gooch's big weakness lately has been off the tee but the wide fairways and less-than-penal rough at Augusta could nullify that to a degree. The big worry is that he'll be making his Masters debut but, if we're taking fliers, you're likely going to see a lot of that. Microsoft and partners may be compensated if you purchase something through recommended links in this article.
In his previous four events alone, he has gained Thomas is trending in the right direction, and the stars are aligning just right for him to capture his first green jacket. He claimed his second PGA Tour win in the fall and has two top finishes through nine events this year.
The 26th-ranked golfer in the OWGR is being overlooked by the odds. There is one statistic that consistently plays at Augusta National, and that is driving distance. On the PGA Tour, he is currently ranked second with an average driving distance of I am not the only one who is backing Young this week. At BetMGM, he commands a 0. Still, this is a great value for the well-rounded Englishman.
Hatton has also made eight straight world-wide cuts with four top finishes and six top 20s. Experience is paramount here, so he should be more comfortable this time around. His putter is problematic, which may be an issue on these fast and undulated greens, but he gained 7. Homa is certainly worth a flier at these odds. He has made four straight cuts with no result worse than his T last week. His performance in the final three majors of was nearly the stuff of legend second at the PGA Championship and U.
Conners finished T or better in each of the last two runnings of the Masters. Given his extended warmup period this year, take him as the even-money underdog in this tournament head-to-head. At It' Due to his past performance in major championships that Koepka is taking so much action. For the sportsbooks to avoid liability on Koepka, they had to pair him up against an elite golfer in his matchup. This player is Viktor Hovland, and statistically, this matchup is not even close to being competitive.
On the season, Hovland has averaged 1. Essentially, this means that upon completion of four rounds, Hovland should be close to six strokes better than Koepka. It is only for liability reasons that Koepka is paired against Hovland in the matchups. Therefore, I must support Hovland on the basis of his statistics.
Hovland is being offered a very generous price of , where he has a significant statistical edge. The odds are a market, not a prediction. This matchup and line are all about countering Koepka's liability. Of course, he also won in and added four more top-five finishes. Even with likely positive regression ahead for his near-PGA Tour worst SG: around-the-green rank, this golf course demands precision with all 14 clubs.
Tyrrell Hatton via DraftKings Matt Fitzpatrick has made the cut in six of his seven trips to Augusta, with a T-7 in as his best finish. Fitzpatrick has already put together quite a year, with four top finishes, and he leads the Tour in SG: total this season. Hatton finished T here last season, his best finish in the Masters. He has been playing well globally and recently tied for second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Majors, and the Masters specifically, are pressure-packed events, and one lousy shot may send the Englishman over the edge.
Sam Burns is making his Masters debut this week but while ranked 11th in the world and with three PGA Tour victories to his name.
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